Executive Summary
Fuel retail is entering a structural transition: as battery-electric vehicles gain market share, traditional forecourts must evolve from fast-throughput, low-margin fuel pumps to multi-service EV charging hubs that monetise dwell time. The speed and shape of this transition vary by region, but operators that delay planning risk stranded assets and declining EBITDA. At Energy Solutions, we quantify the economics of retrofitting gas stations with fast chargers, the required grid upgrades, and the revenue mix needed to keep forecourts relevant.
- By 2030, EVs could represent 25–45% of new light-duty vehicle sales in many markets, but their share of total kilometres driven will still be lower, giving operators a 10–15 year hybrid period where liquid fuels and electrons coexist.
- Retrofitting a typical urban forecourt with 4–8 fast/ultrafast chargers (150–300 kW) requires grid capacity in the 0.8–2.5 MVA range and CAPEX of roughly 0.6–2.0 million USD, depending on civil works and transformer upgrades.
- Station-level EV charging margins are sensitive to utilisation: at 8–15% utilisation, fast charging can deliver attractive gross margins per kWh but may only be EBITDA-positive when combined with higher-margin retail and food & beverage (F&B) sales.
- Indicative payback periods for well-sited hubs are in the 5–9 year range, with implied abatement costs of 40–140 USD/tCO2 relative to continued ICE refuelling, depending on grid carbon intensity and pricing strategies.
- Operators who treat EV investments as pure hardware swaps often underperform. The most resilient strategies reposition stations as multi-energy, multi-service nodes—combining EV charging, convenience retail, parcel lockers, and sometimes micro-mobility or fleet charging.
What You'll Learn
- Technical Foundation: From Fuel Pumps to High-Power Chargers
- Benchmarks & Data: Power, CAPEX, and Utilisation
- Economics: TCO, Margins, and Abatement Cost
- Case Studies: Urban Flagship Hub and Highway Corridor Site
- Infrastructure & Supply Chain: Grid, Hardware, and Software
- Devil's Advocate: Cannibalisation, Grid Constraints, and Timing Risk
- Outlook to 2030/2035: Role of Forecourts in the EV Era
- Implementation Guide: Site Segmentation and KPIs
- FAQ: Questions from Retailers, Utilities, and Investors
Technical Foundation: From Fuel Pumps to High-Power Chargers
Traditional gas stations are optimised for short dwell times and high vehicle throughput. Most sites draw modest electrical loads—lighting, pumps, HVAC, and small retail—typically below 100–300 kVA. Fast and ultrafast EV charging invert this logic: they demand very high peak power but can operate with moderate vehicle throughput if utilisation and tariffs are managed carefully.
Two main charging architectures dominate forecourt design:
- Distributed chargers: Each pedestal contains power electronics and connects directly to a low-voltage bus (e.g., 400–480 V). Simple but less efficient at scale.
- Centralised DC power cabinets: A high-capacity DC bus feeds multiple satellites, enabling dynamic power sharing (e.g., 4 x 150 kW posts sharing 600 kW of capacity).
For legacy sites, the key technical constraint is upstream capacity: existing utility connections may only support 200–400 kVA, far below the 1–3 MVA that a robust fast-charging hub might require. Solutions include new medium-voltage connections, on-site transformers, local storage, or hybrid systems that combine grid power with behind-the-meter batteries.
Benchmarks & Data: Power, CAPEX, and Utilisation
The economics of EV hubs are driven by three quantitative pillars: installed power and number of chargers, utilisation profiles over the day, and capital cost per installed kW and per bay. The following tables provide stylised 2026 benchmarks.
Indicative EV Charging Configurations for Existing Gas Stations (2026)
| Configuration | Chargers & Rating | Installed Power (kW) | Typical Grid Capacity Required (kVA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urban starter hub | 4 x 150 kW DC | 600 | 800–1,000 |
| Urban flagship hub | 6–8 x 150–200 kW (shared) | 1,000–1,500 | 1,400–2,000 |
| Highway corridor site | 8–12 x 250–300 kW | 2,000–3,000 | 2,500–3,500 |
Stylised CAPEX Benchmarks for EV Hub Retrofit (Per Site)
| Component | Urban Starter | Urban Flagship | Highway Corridor |
|---|---|---|---|
| DC chargers & cabinets | 220,000–380,000 | 450,000–900,000 | 900,000–1,800,000 |
| Transformers & grid connection | 150,000–300,000 | 300,000–700,000 | 600,000–1,200,000 |
| Civil works & canopies | 80,000–200,000 | 150,000–350,000 | 250,000–500,000 |
| Software, integration, design | 60,000–150,000 | 100,000–250,000 | 150,000–300,000 |
| Total CAPEX (indicative) | 0.5–1.0 million | 0.9–2.0 million | 1.9–3.8 million |
Ranges are indicative and exclude major site redevelopment or land acquisition.
Utilisation and Revenue Per Charger (Stylised 150–200 kW DC)
| Metric | Low Utilisation | Base Case | High Utilisation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average utilisation (% of 24h) | 4–6% | 8–12% | 15–20% |
| Energy dispensed (MWh/month) | 4–7 | 8–13 | 15–22 |
| Gross margin (USD/kWh) | 0.10–0.18 | 0.12–0.20 | 0.10–0.18 |
| Gross margin (USD/month) | 400–1,200 | 1,000–2,600 | 1,800–4,000 |
Indicative CAPEX per Installed kW by Site Type
Annual Charger Revenue vs Utilisation
EV Hub Abatement Cost vs Grid CO2 Intensity
Economics: TCO, Margins, and Abatement Cost
The EV hub business case combines infrastructure economics (CAPEX, connection charges, maintenance) with retail economics (charging tariffs, dwell-time spend, loyalty). Unlike conventional fuel, where gross margins often sit at 0.05–0.15 USD/litre, EV charging margins are typically framed per kWh and can be significantly higher on a relative basis—but they must cover higher fixed costs and lower asset utilisation in the early years.
For a flagship urban hub with 1–1.5 MW of installed DC capacity and total CAPEX of 1.1–1.7 million USD, annualised capital recovery at a 7–10% real WACC over 12–15 years implies capital charges of roughly 120,000–220,000 USD/year. Adding OPEX (network, software, maintenance, rent allocation) can bring fixed annual costs to 200,000–350,000 USD before energy purchase.
To break even, such a hub may need to dispense on the order of 800–1,600 MWh/year, depending on net margin per kWh. At 10–15% utilisation, this is achievable in demand-dense locations with a strong EV base, but challenging in underdeveloped markets.
Abatement Cost Perspective
For policy and ESG stakeholders, the question is how costly each tonne of CO2 avoided via EV hub deployment appears relative to continued ICE refuelling. Using stylised assumptions (EVs consuming 0.16–0.22 kWh/km, ICE cars consuming 6–8 litres/100 km, grid emissions in the 150–450 gCO2/kWh range), implied abatement costs for forecourt investments often fall between 40 and 140 USD/tCO2. Lower values are achieved where grids are relatively clean and where station CAPEX is amortised across high utilisation and strong retail cross-sales.
Case Studies: Urban Flagship Hub and Highway Corridor Site
Case Study 1 – Urban Flagship Hub in a High-EV Penetration City
A major fuel retailer converted a centrally located station into an EV-centric hub with six 200 kW chargers (1.2 MW total) and upgraded the on-site shop to emphasise foodservice and co-working.
- CAPEX: ~1.5 million USD retrofit, including a new 1.6 MVA transformer, partial canopy rebuild, and digital signage.
- Utilisation: Stabilised at 12–18% per charger after three years, with strong evening and weekend peaks.
- Revenue mix: Roughly 55–65% from charging, 25–35% from F&B and retail, and the rest from partnerships (parcel lockers, advertising, fleet contracts).
- Outcome: Payback of 6–8 years on incremental EV-related CAPEX, with site EBITDA 15–25% higher than the pre-transition ICE-dominated baseline.
Lessons included the importance of mobile app integration, reliable uptime (>98%), and clear pricing to avoid customer backlash. Under-investment in onsite amenities would likely have produced a weaker result.
Case Study 2 – Highway Corridor Site with Mixed Traffic
Along a major highway, a station operator deployed eight 250 kW chargers primarily targeting long-distance drivers and ride-hailing fleets.
- CAPEX: ~2.8 million USD including grid extension, parking reconfiguration, and added rest facilities.
- Utilisation: Initially low (3–5%), rising to 10–14% after coordinated marketing with OEMs and navigation apps.
- Economics: Charging margins were higher than urban sites due to less competition, but traffic was more volatile and weather-sensitive.
The site illustrated that corridor hubs can be profitable but require closer coordination with route planners and fleet operators, as well as robust redundancy to avoid stranding drivers.
Infrastructure & Supply Chain: Grid, Hardware, and Software
The success of EV hubs rests on three pillars beyond the business model itself:
- Grid and transformers: Securing 1–3 MVA connections in dense urban areas can take 18–36 months and may require network reinforcements.
- Hardware quality: Fast chargers must deliver high uptime, robust cable management, and clear user interfaces; early generations suffered from reliability challenges that tarnished customer perception.
- Software and interoperability: Payment systems, roaming, and load management are core differentiators; closed ecosystems risk underutilisation.
Supply chain constraints—particularly for power electronics and transformers—mean that operators must align rollout schedules with vendor capacity and utility planning cycles.
Devil's Advocate: Cannibalisation, Grid Constraints, and Timing Risk
A cautious view of the EV hub narrative raises several valid concerns:
- Cannibalisation risk: In early years, EV charging may displace some high-margin retail from existing sites while not yet providing equivalent footfall.
- Grid dependency: Overreliance on a single high-capacity connection creates vulnerability to outages or curtailment in stressed grids.
- Oversizing and stranding: Operators may be tempted to over-build capacity in anticipation of demand that materialises slower than planned.
- Competitive pressure: Utilities, dedicated CPOs, and retailers are all vying for prime sites; late movers may inherit subscale, poorly located assets.
These risks argue for staged investment, dynamic sizing, and flexible contracts with hardware and software partners, rather than large, one-off bets.
Outlook to 2030/2035: Role of Forecourts in the EV Era
By 2030–2035, the role of legacy gas stations will vary by region: in mature EV markets, many central urban sites may be fully electrified hubs with only limited liquid fuel presence, while rural and highway locations continue serving both ICE and EVs for longer.
The most resilient networks will likely share characteristics:
- A portfolio approach balancing urban, suburban, and corridor hubs.
- Integration with digital platforms (navigation, loyalty, fleet management).
- Diversified revenue streams beyond energy sales, including last-mile logistics, F&B, and ancillary services.
Implementation Guide: Site Segmentation and KPIs
For operators, the first step is rigorous segmentation of the existing network:
- Classify sites as core urban, suburban commute, highway corridor, or rural convenience.
- Assess grid and space constraints for each category, including potential for solar canopies or batteries.
- Model cross-selling uplift under different charging dwell-time scenarios.
- Prioritise a pilot portfolio of 5–20 sites to refine the concept before large-scale rollout.
KPIs to track include: kWh dispensed per site per day, charger utilisation%, average gross margin per kWh, incremental non-fuel revenue per charging session, and customer satisfaction / NPS scores.