Freight and logistics represent roughly 8–10% of global CO2 emissions when including heavy-duty road, shipping, aviation, and warehousing. Companies face mounting pressure from regulation, customers, and financiers to cut emissions while preserving cost efficiency and reliability. Energy Solutions analysis assesses which decarbonisation levers—efficiency, modal shift, electrification, hydrogen, and low-carbon fuels—are deployable at scale this decade and what they mean for cost per ton-kilometre.
Supply-chain emissions are concentrated in a limited number of high-intensity links: deep-sea shipping, aviation, long-haul trucking, and energy-intensive warehousing. For many sectors, logistics accounts for 10–25% of Scope 3 emissions. Margins are often thin, so cost additions must be carefully managed.
The key levers are: (1) demand and distance reduction (network design, nearshoring), (2) efficiency and consolidation, (3) modal shift, and (4) fuel switching and electrification.
| Mode | Typical gCO2e/ton-km | Cost Sensitivity to Decarbonisation | Key Levers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep-sea shipping | 8–20 | Moderate | Efficiency, slow steaming, alternative fuels |
| Rail freight | 10–40 | Low–moderate | Electrification, loading factors |
| Heavy-duty trucking | 60–120 | High | Aerodynamics, fuel switch, electrification |
| Air freight | 500–900 | High | Modal shift, SAF, load factor |
Source: Energy Solutions synthesis of public LCA and operator data (2024–2025).
No single technology will decarbonise logistics. Instead, shippers build portfolios of measures tailored to lanes and products:
| Measure | Emissions Reduction vs Baseline | Indicative Cost Impact | Deployment Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operational efficiency | 5–15% | Low / often cost-negative | Now |
| Modal shift (road ? rail) | 30–70% | Low–moderate | Now–mid term |
| Battery-electric trucks | 70–100% (tank-to-wheel) | Moderate–high CAPEX, variable OPEX | Scaling 2025–2035 |
Source: Energy Solutions scenarios; medium-duty and heavy-duty combined.
The table below compares stylised logistics options for a continental lane (e.g., 800–1,000 km) in 2026.
Source: Energy Solutions modelling for representative EU lane in 2026.
A pan-European retailer redesigned its inbound logistics network to shift volume from road to rail and deploy electric trucks on regional legs.
An automotive manufacturer implemented a "green corridor" for parts between a central plant and major suppliers, combining renewable-powered rail and battery trucks for first/last mile.
Policy and infrastructure shape decarbonisation trajectories:
Source: Energy Solutions scenarios; regional freight emissions index.
Practitioners caution against oversimplified narratives:
Energy Solutions analysis emphasises staged portfolios of measures with robust TCO assessments and flexible contracting to manage these risks.
By 2030, leading firms are expected to have decarbonised a significant share of their high-visibility lanes, using a mix of zero-emission trucks, renewable-powered rail, biofuels, and operational measures. By 2035, under ambitious scenarios, zero- and low-carbon fuels could capture a substantial share of new shipping and long-haul demand.
Over the longer term, convergence between logistics decarbonisation and energy-system transformation— SMRs, green hydrogen, and V2G-enabled fleets—will shape the cost and availability of low-carbon transport energy.
For many diversified shippers, a 20–30% reduction in logistics emissions by 2030 is realistic using efficiency, modal shift, and targeted fuel-switching, assuming supportive policy and infrastructure in key corridors.
Electrification is typically prioritised for short- and medium-haul routes with predictable schedules and depot charging. Low-carbon fuels (biofuels, e-fuels, hydrogen) often target long-haul road, shipping, and aviation where batteries face practical limits.
Common approaches include specifying emissions-intensity targets, requiring reporting compatible with GLEC or similar frameworks, and using green corridors and preferred carrier programmes for low-carbon options.
Shippers typically combine network and routing models with emissions calculators, cost simulators, and scenario tools aligned with corporate net-zero pathways.